Winter 2022 Colloquia

Monday, January 24, 2022

Rising Concerns Surrounding Sample Size: False Positives and P-Hacking

ABSTRACT: From the 1950s to the early 2000s, researchers in the field of psychology relied heavily on small samples. This tendency, coupled with journals’ publication bias, meant that real but small effects went unnoticed. As large samples have become the norm, some scholars have voiced misplaced concerns that large-sample studies are more likely than their small-sample counterparts to yield false-positive results, a concern that some have attributed to the practice of p-hacking. Leveraging data from five independent studies testing five different psychology effects, this project examines the effect of sample size on false positives and the hypothesis that sample size moderates the effectiveness of p-hacking. We find that large samples appear to be less susceptible to false positives due to p-hacking, but that large samples may be more susceptible to finding significant results due to attrition biases. We put forth three recommendations in light of these findings: (1) Be skeptical of results from small-sample studies; (2) Be skeptical of results from large-sample studies; and (3) Be transparent, and insist on transparency, in research.

Larissa Bersh, Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University

Diana Jordan, Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University

Monday, January 31, 2022

Racial Resentment in the Political Mind

ABSTRACT: In Racial Resentment in the Political Mind, Darren W. Davis and David C. Wilson challenge the commonly held notion that all racial negativity, disagreements, and objections to policies that seek to help racial minorities stem from racial prejudice. They argue that racial resentment arises from just-world beliefs and appraisals of deservingness that help explain the persistence of racial inequality in America in ways more consequential than racism or racial prejudice alone. The culprits, as many White people see it, are undeserving people of color, who are perceived to benefit unfairly from, and take advantage of, resources that come at Whites’ expense—a worldview in which any attempt at modest change is seen as a challenge to the status quo and privilege. Yet, as Davis and Wilson reveal, many Whites have become racially resentful due to their perceptions that African Americans skirt the “rules of the game” and violate traditional values by taking advantage of unearned resources. Resulting attempts at racial progress lead Whites to respond in ways that retain their social advantage—opposing ameliorative policies, minority candidates, and other advancement on racial progress. Because racial resentment is rooted in beliefs about justice, fairness, and deservingness, ordinary citizens, who may not harbor racist motivations, may wind up in the same political position as racists, but for different reasons.

David Wilson, Department of Political Science at UC Berkeley